Most Investments are Bad
https://www.lynalden.com/most-investments-are-bad/
The majority of unlevered businesses are not strong enough to produce returns for passive investors that outperform T-bills or gold. The majority of unlevered real estate properties, after maintenance and operation and taxes are considered, also fail to outperform basic assets like gold. The vast majority of businesses are not strong enough to provide good returns for outside passive investors after all expenses (including salaries) are considered.
Good returns for outside passive investors are reserved for only the best types of companies: Bessembinder’s research found that major outperformers were disproportionally concentrated in the technology, telecommunications, energy, and healthcare/pharmaceutical sectors.
The types of investments that worked well during the past four decades are less likely to work quite as well over the next four decades. The virtuous cycle of ever-lower interest rates, ever-higher private debt levels, and ever-higher equity valuations, is likely getting past its prime.
Seek out the businesses that have durable competitive advantages (network effects, powerful brands, intangible property, economies of scale, oligopoly participation, and so forth)